Scenario (Likelihood)
Conditional likelihood ////// overall //
under ... over /// under ... over
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------USA scores 8 or more in 5 innings* (40%)
0% ... 100% /// 0.00 ... 0.40
(game may or may not end depending on how large a US lead)--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
USA scores exactly 7 in 5 or 6 innings** (20%)
.... If so, will Italy will have at least 1?#
No, i.e., 7-0 ........... 30% ................///0.06............
Yes, e.g. 7-1, 7-3 ................... 70%///............. 0.14
(Scenario would invoke mercy rule depending on whether Italy has scored)Yes, e.g. 7-1, 7-3 ................... 70%///............. 0.14
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
USA does not score 7 in 6 innings or less (40%)
.... If so, will US & Italy together score 8 or more?
No, e.g. 3-0, 5-2 ..... 75% ................///0.30............
Yes, e.g. 6-2, 5-3 .................... 25%///............. 0.10
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Yes, e.g. 6-2, 5-3 .................... 25%///............. 0.10
Grand Total: Under 36%, Over 64%
under ... over
0.36 ... 0.64
0.36 ... 0.64
* Likelihood of US Score based on 2009 games (11 games total; 5 against weak teams)
# Likelihood of Italy score based on their scoring in games this year, 3 runs in 1 inning vs. Canada in postponed game, and US not using one of their aces in the game.